I have set up this crude graphic, and hurricane overlay, to point to the location that I believe the first tropical system of the season will strike. Once there is a landfall, I will continue to update the graphic, to illustrate the next potential strike. My predictions are based on simple probabilities, however, since hurricanes know nothing about statistics, the possibility of being correct is about 1000:1! I do this for the challenge, and of course it feels good to be right! First pick graphic and overlay set on May 24th, 2011(Set Point, Fifty Miles North of Brownsville, TX). Updated on July 29th, 2011(Set Point, North of Galveston, TX, East of Houston, TX)! Updated on August 29th, 2011(Set Point, North of Galveston, TX, East of Houston, TX)! Updated on Sept 4th, 2011(Set Point, Washington D.C.)! 1. I nearly hit that one dead center but Don wouldn't develop since he was fighting a Meso-Cyclone rotating around it! (Right Location, Wrong Strength - By a Mile, Opps!) I contend that the first Hurricane will still come in and hit Texas, so the graphic remains the same with a minor adjustment to the North! 2. Well I missed that one! Irene, the second land falling U.S. system in 2011, slide up the East Coast, and then buried itself in the Northeast. I thought this system would be taken back out to sea, but the ridge that did move Irene came in later than anticipated. 3. Hey got that one close enough for Hurricane work! So the tally is, two out of three picks, RIGHT! The next system I got going into DC, let hope it's a weak, feeble, nothing system! We've had enough this season, already! 4. Our season has continued with expected activity that may even dwarf Dr. Gothican's prediction! However, so that the Hurricane Center can protect their numbers they are now throwing factual storm data out the window. Case in Point; Ophelia, and everything that was Ophelia moved off to the West and dissipated! It did however, leave behind disturbed weather, just as Lee did earlier this year. In the case of Lee though, which also left a mess behind in the Gulf, Nate was born out of Lee. Why wasn't it called Lee again? Nate was Storm fourteen, and the Hurricane Center wasn't yet concerned with their season total storm predictions. Shortly after that they increase their total storm prediction from 16 to 19. Well, Ophelia was storm number 16, and with us just a bit beyond the middle of the season their worried with their numbers, again! You will find a Rina on my map, born on Monday, September 26th! |
