WARS FROM 1 BC THRU 2002 TOTAL THROUGHOUT THE WORLD
1 BC - 1000 174 wars (1000 years)
1000 - 1499 110 wars (500 years)
1501 - 1799 261 wars (300 years)
1800 - 1899 288 wars (100 years)
1900 - 1944 101 wars (44 years)
1945 - 1989 110 wars (44 years)
1990 - 2002 50 wars (12 years)
Total 1094
This graph is based on what was listed first, the accumulation of war throughout history. Each point on the graph simple identifies a relationship to the other, only, nothing more can be implied except the escalation from period to period.
This graph shows a simply relationship to the first one thousand years with the second thousand, AD.
Wars of the United States
The American Revolution (1775-1781)
The War of 1812 (1812-1815)
The Mexican-American War (1846-1848)
The American Civil War (1861-1865)
The Spanish-American War (1898)
World War One (1917-1918)
World War Two (1941-1945)
The Korean War (1950-1953)
The Vietnam War (1965-1975)
The Persian Gulf War (1990-1991)
The Afghanistan War (2001-)
The Iraq War (2003-2011)
61 total years the U.S. has been at war, over a quarter of our existence, not many countries throughout the world can chart a statistic like that one. However, the real issue of world war is two fold, the escalation of conflict throughout the world as we become more technologically advanced and what that suggests for the future if we fail to mature sociologically.
Please read on to find out when statistically the worlds conflicts may become so great that it will once again catapulted this planet into world wide conflict or better know as World War III.
Statistical research suggests that at any point in history there are twenty to thirty conflicts going on in the world but this statistic is skewed by world war. Although this statistic is invalidated by these spikes, since each country in any conflict is a particular in the statistic the research can be used to suggest when the next world war may occur.
There are several statistics that one might use to help identify future world war, this research is using three, world conflict as suggested above, economic ills, and allied country inclusion in previous world wide conflicts.
On June 28th, 1914 WWI started because of strong feelings of nationalism throughout Europe which created an atmosphere of likely conflict. The spark which ignited the flame and transformed these underlying problems into a frenzy of hostilities happened on June 28, 1914, when Archduke Francis Ferdinand of Austria was assassinated by a Serbian student, Gavrilo Princip, while visiting Sarajevo, Bosnia. Many historians consider this to be the spark that started WWI.
On September 1st, 1939 WWII started after three years of mounting international tension - encompassing the Spanish Civil War, the Anschluss (union) of Germany and Austria, Hitler's occupation of the Sudetenland and the invasion of Czechoslovakia providing the setting for a likely world war.
In both cases mounting conflicts in the world were a predecessor to organized global war. Presently on our planet there are twenty-nine conflicts world wide. There has clearly been an escalation of conflict in the world over the last ten years at a rate equal to WWI and WWII escalation, however, today (March 24th, 2011) there are more conflicts across the world than any time in our history. The first statistic clearly identifies intensification towards world war but this statistic alone does not demonstrate approximately when or if it's soon! Let us take a look at the other two statistics then put them together to see if we can approximate when.
The first statistic has been approached but statistical economic ills can be arbitrary however as the world declined into world conflict the two previous time many of the economies of the world were in trouble, war seem to reenergize most since as production for each countries war machine increased so did its economy. This will not be true in a third world war for the U.S. since the third world war will be fought with the computer, there will be very little to produce and since we have become a consumption society production is at an all time low anyhow. Since we have also created multiple ways to annihilate thousands or even millions at one time this war may also be very short with not much left afterwards. It doesn't take much analysis to see that the economies of the world are in grave trouble. Crime, poverty, hate, starvation, terrorism are all increasing precipitators of world war and are accelerating to an all time high but one final statistic that will help identify when or if soon.
The final statistic is a very interpretive statistic as well but when coupled with the others, together all three can be frightenly accurate. What I have done to extract this statistic was to look at the two previous world wide conflicts and identify how each two regions at war allied with each other. One must agree the world must align itself in a similar manner each time it goes to war to give this statistic meaning but since it is not the only statistic the three together will give the final result balance. Also, since the world allied itself nearly the same in each world conflict it can be expected that it will align itself generally the same in the next world war.
Currently the world is only loosely allied mainly for economic reasons but for the First World War in October 1883, Rumania and Austria-Hungary signed a secret alliance to which Germany adhered, thirty-one years prior to the 1914 declaration. This alliance was very significant and is considered the primary precipitator of war.
Prior to the Second World War, on September 18, 1931, a group of Japanese soldiers stationed in the northern Chinese province of Manchuria, masquerading as Chinese bandits, blew up a few feet of the Japanese-controlled South Manchurian Railway. The clumsily orchestrated incident was used as a pretext to launch an attack by the Kwantung Army (Japan's field army in China), which aimed to occupy the whole of the province and bring its rich resources under Japanese control. This was the start of a decade of escalating violence that would culminate in the German assault on Poland and the start of World War II. Once again there was a clear precipitator to war many years before the actual outbreak of war. There was thirteen years prior to WWII that this incident occurred. Alliances once again made it clear that the world was moving to war. Recent Korean ills and a similar incident may be suggestive but so does the Chinese and Japans issues of recent times. Now we have much unrest in the Arab world and one of the greatest disasters to the worlds computer hub, Japan facing the world. I am so sorry to say but WWIII seems inevitable but how soon?
Now let's regroup and gather all our statistics together to identify an approximate date to expect world war. The first statistic is an indicator to the level of conflict going on in the world. Just prior to 1913 there were 19 conflicts in the world and in 1939 just prior to World War II there were 24. Both these numbers represent a very high number of disputes. Today the number of disputes going on in the world is 40 and this represents the historically highest number ever across the world in 200 years suggesting that World War may be not far off. The next statistic is the economic ills of the world and this country just suffered the greatest recession since the great depression. Currently there are fourteen other countries across the world in a bad recession suggesting this planet is headed toward a world wide recession. This was exactly the same economic down turn that happened just prior to both wars which suggest World War is closer and closer. The final statistic, alliances in the world brought forth some very specific stats. In both World Wars shortly before the break out of actual hostilities alliances of one or two countries sharply changed.
Now to provide an exact date like August 10th, 2021 as to when the world will go to war is not realistic however with that said there are some very serious statistical indicators world war is very close. The most compelling indicator has not happen yet but I would look for a sharp movement in the alliances of Japan, Germany, France, Italy, Iraq, Korea, Turkey, Israel, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and of course the U.S.. Most importantly the abandonment of Israel by this country would certainly bring war. When we see an incisive change in the alliance in any one major power across the world I've list, especially Israel, we can expect that to precipitate world war. The actual start up of hostilities won't begin until right after an incident similar to what both previous wars were initiated by, the assassination of the Archduke and the haphazard railroad strike, however one might say this already occurred on September 11th, 2001. Has the world been at war? Answer: No only the United States!
World War will happen in the next twenty years and specific indicators to look for is an incisive change in the alliance in any one major power, an assassination of a high level governmental leader of a powerful NATO country and a terrorist attack that happens shortly after a shift in major power alliances. After any of these incidents occur World War will be only months away. Should our alliance with Israel fail then World War might be only days away.
In conclusion throughout human history fighting and warfare has been part of every person on the planet. Our so many wars suggest that we as a race cannot solve any of our problems without causing someone's death first. We fight more than build, educate and provide for our own. The most recent escalation of world conflict suggests that we have learnt nothing from any of our past mistakes. Until we understand that we are all essentially the same and that we all live with the same needs and desires we will continue to rationalize our mass murders as necessary war. Everything suggests that the most viable trade job throughout the entire world is killing one another. For this to stop we must evolve and become a grown up society, a free and unbounded world that borders no longer exist on any level. A world where everyone is free to chart their own course in life. The repressive dictatorships of the middle east and the unrest that is currently exploding their is a clear call for world social evolution!
"I hate war, everything about it, how we elevate the heroes, write movies about it, live our lives with it never far off and seeing children play war with each other. However, I love the peoples of the world, so much variety of thinking and beliefs. It's a shame our charted existence will be so short lived, because of WAR. For this not to be true we must all realize, WE MUST CHANGE!"
"So that there is no misunderstanding I do not object to soldiers, I object to the governments that put them in harms way! The courage it take to stand against a foe and prepare to die especially when you are at odds with your own conscience, is awesome! However it is time to quit honoring the wars these great men died in and only honor them! Study the wars so that we can learn from them but never honor them, they are all BAD!"
"Death will come soon enough, to have WAR bring it about for thousands IS INSANITY!!"
Dr. Julian Gothican
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